• Over at the Daily Dish, Andrew Sullivan compiles diverse election reactions from around the web, here and here. He also has some final thoughts on the pain in Maine after last night’s disappointing result. It wasn’t all bad news for the gays, though. “Everything-but-marriage” domestic partnerships survived a referendum in Washington state, and Chapel Hill—yes, the one in North Carolina, really!—elected a gay mayor.

• Alex Pareene has characteristically sensible and witty takes on yesterday’s elections, Maine, and Michael Bloomberg at Gawker.

• At the New Republic, Jonathan Chait dissects the national spin and Michael Crowley articulates what ought to become the conventional wisdom on Mayor Mike: “I’m glad Bloomberg got some comeuppance, but I’m also glad he won.”

• Brian Beutler makes a meaningful point about the elections and health insurance reform: a bill will now be easier to pass in the House.

• Reactions at NRO’s The Corner are predictably smug and self-serving. Jonah Goldberg thinks yesterday was a “very, very bad day for Democrats.” We’ll see. Mark Steyn tries to downplay Hoffman’s loss in NY-23. (Would shoulda coulda!) Never mind, of course, that the Dems actually picked up a seat in the House overall. And finally, slimy Maggie Gallagher is “so happy” about the conservative victory in Maine. (Too bad it didn’t go her way in Washington!)

In actual news, today is the 30th anniversary of the start of the Tehran hostage crisis, and protests there continue for various reasons.

Big whoop.

Lest we forget, in 2001 the Virginia and New Jersey statehouses switched parties—from Republican to Democrat. This is what they do—and have done for decades—when new presidents are elected. It’s called reactionary voting, and it’s especially to be expected when the economy sucks. People aren’t happy: get rid of the politicians.

As for NY-23, it’s one of the most conservative districts in New York state. This shouldn’t be a difficult win for the right. But it might well be a loss. And everyone seems to be forgetting that a special election in California’s 10th Congressional District, for the seat that Ellen Tauscher gave up to become Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, is almost certainly going to go to the Democratic candidate, John Garamendi, who, according to Nate Silver, should be significantly more liberal than his predecessor.

Far more interesting are the Maine same-sex marriage question, worryingly too close to call as I write, and the small margin—only 5%!—by which Michael Bloomberg is going to win in NYC. I’ll have more on all of this at some point tomorrow, but 2009 in general: Eh.

Tomorrow is election day here in America, although with 2009 being an odd-numbered year there are only a few important races. Here’s a primer of the races likely to make headlines: the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections, a special election in New York’s 23rd Congressional district that’s drawn lots of press, and gay rights ballot initiatives in Maine and Washington state.

Oh yeah, and there’s a mayoral election right here in New York City. I wonder who will win?

Historically, the VA and NJ governorships, always a year behind the Presidential cycle, tend to switch parties after a new President is elected, to the party that isn’t in power in the White House. The trend could continue this year.

With Governor Tim Kaine not running eligible for reelection (he’s the new Chairman of the DNC, and Virginia is the only state not to allow governors to serve consecutive terms), the Virginia gubernatorial race was wide open all year. Democrat Creigh Deeds, despite having seemingly all the advantages in this race—an ascendant party in the state, a popular Democratic president in the White House, a popular governor whose act to follow—has run a terrible campaign and is behind Republican Bob McDonnell in the polls 54-41. Deeds has gotten flack for not embracing President Obama enthusiastically enough, and he’s running well behind Obama’s numbers from last year, even in rural Virginia. This race looks pretty much locked up—increasingly blue Virginia should have a Republican governor come January.





The New Jersey Gubernatorial election is far closer, and far more interesting. New Jersey has a budget crisis as bad as any state, making it a ripe environment for an unseating. NJ Governor Jon Corzine, a former Goldman Sachs executive and U.S. Senator, increasingly unpopular in his home state, is in a surprisingly tight race with Republican Chris Christie, a former U.S. Attorney. After leading in the polls all year, by as much as nearly 20 points over the summer, Christie is now in a dead heat with Corzine in Pollster.com’s poll of polls.  There’s a third party spoiler in former Republican Chris Daggett, currently polling around 11%, and some Republicans have begun to call for Daggett’s withdrawal from the race. President Obama campaigned for Corzine today, a sign that the Democrats see this race as winnable. (One wonders what effect all the entertaining controversy surrounding Christie’s weight will have on the result.) Who will win tomorrow in the Garden State? Nobody knows. This will be one to watch.





A special election for Congress in NY-23 is perhaps the juiciest story of this election season. Republican John McHugh resigned the seat earlier this year to become the Secretary of the Army. The GOP officially nominated assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava in July, but she quickly drew criticism from the conservative wing of her party for being too liberal. (Scozzafava, it turns out, is to the right of most of her caucus in the New York legislature, a fact of little relevance to the tea partiers.)  Prominent conservative leaders from Sarah Palin to Tim Pawlenty endorsed Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party nominee, leading to Scozzafava’s withdrawal from the race on Saturday. Yesterday she endorsed Bill Owens, the Democratic nominee. (See Frank Rich’s column from yesterday’s Times for a taste of the situation’s absurdity.) It’s anyone’s guess to which candidate her supporters turn now, but the interesting story here has already been written: the continuing triumph of the far right “Tea Party” wing of the GOP over the traditional Republican establishment. And so the Republican Party digs its own grave.

Even gay rights, opposition to which propelled President Bush to reelection in 2004, don’t seem likely to heal any wounds on the Right this year. Maine’s marriage equality law is up for a people’s veto (Maine Issue 1). This is no Prop 8, however—the bill was passed by both houses of the Maine legislature and signed into law by Governor John Baldacci, marking the first time in American history that gay marriage has been enacted by a governor’s signature. “No on Issue 1″ has held a steady lead in the polls, despite the efforts of Maggie Gallagher and her sad “National Organization for Marriage,” and it looks like same-sex marriage will survive tomorrow’s vote.

In Washington State, a domestic partnership law (“everything-but-marriage”) is up for referendum. Unlike Prop 8 in California or Maine’s Issue 1, a vote for R-71 is a vote for the expansion of domestic partnership rights and benefits. The referendum should pass, according to the latest Washington Poll [PDF].

So what does the big political picture look like on Wednesday morning? A mixed bag, I’d say. Conservatives will note, loudly and regardless of the outcomes in NJ and NY-23, that the results represent a tarnishing of the Democratic brand. (Indeed, some are already saying just that!) Liberals will almost certainly be able to find hope in the results of the two gay rights ballot initiatives.

But what’s most important to remember is that this is an off-year, and we’re talking about high-profile elections in just two states and one Congressional district. These few races, despite what everyone will tell you, do not represent any significant measurement of the political pulse.