Decision 2009

Tomorrow is election day here in America, although with 2009 being an odd-numbered year there are only a few important races. Here’s a primer of the races likely to make headlines: the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections, a special election in New York’s 23rd Congressional district that’s drawn lots of press, and gay rights ballot initiatives in Maine and Washington state.

Oh yeah, and there’s a mayoral election right here in New York City. I wonder who will win?

Historically, the VA and NJ governorships, always a year behind the Presidential cycle, tend to switch parties after a new President is elected, to the party that isn’t in power in the White House. The trend could continue this year.

With Governor Tim Kaine not running eligible for reelection (he’s the new Chairman of the DNC, and Virginia is the only state not to allow governors to serve consecutive terms), the Virginia gubernatorial race was wide open all year. Democrat Creigh Deeds, despite having seemingly all the advantages in this race—an ascendant party in the state, a popular Democratic president in the White House, a popular governor whose act to follow—has run a terrible campaign and is behind Republican Bob McDonnell in the polls 54-41. Deeds has gotten flack for not embracing President Obama enthusiastically enough, and he’s running well behind Obama’s numbers from last year, even in rural Virginia. This race looks pretty much locked up—increasingly blue Virginia should have a Republican governor come January.





The New Jersey Gubernatorial election is far closer, and far more interesting. New Jersey has a budget crisis as bad as any state, making it a ripe environment for an unseating. NJ Governor Jon Corzine, a former Goldman Sachs executive and U.S. Senator, increasingly unpopular in his home state, is in a surprisingly tight race with Republican Chris Christie, a former U.S. Attorney. After leading in the polls all year, by as much as nearly 20 points over the summer, Christie is now in a dead heat with Corzine in Pollster.com’s poll of polls.  There’s a third party spoiler in former Republican Chris Daggett, currently polling around 11%, and some Republicans have begun to call for Daggett’s withdrawal from the race. President Obama campaigned for Corzine today, a sign that the Democrats see this race as winnable. (One wonders what effect all the entertaining controversy surrounding Christie’s weight will have on the result.) Who will win tomorrow in the Garden State? Nobody knows. This will be one to watch.





A special election for Congress in NY-23 is perhaps the juiciest story of this election season. Republican John McHugh resigned the seat earlier this year to become the Secretary of the Army. The GOP officially nominated assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava in July, but she quickly drew criticism from the conservative wing of her party for being too liberal. (Scozzafava, it turns out, is to the right of most of her caucus in the New York legislature, a fact of little relevance to the tea partiers.)  Prominent conservative leaders from Sarah Palin to Tim Pawlenty endorsed Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party nominee, leading to Scozzafava’s withdrawal from the race on Saturday. Yesterday she endorsed Bill Owens, the Democratic nominee. (See Frank Rich’s column from yesterday’s Times for a taste of the situation’s absurdity.) It’s anyone’s guess to which candidate her supporters turn now, but the interesting story here has already been written: the continuing triumph of the far right “Tea Party” wing of the GOP over the traditional Republican establishment. And so the Republican Party digs its own grave.

Even gay rights, opposition to which propelled President Bush to reelection in 2004, don’t seem likely to heal any wounds on the Right this year. Maine’s marriage equality law is up for a people’s veto (Maine Issue 1). This is no Prop 8, however—the bill was passed by both houses of the Maine legislature and signed into law by Governor John Baldacci, marking the first time in American history that gay marriage has been enacted by a governor’s signature. “No on Issue 1″ has held a steady lead in the polls, despite the efforts of Maggie Gallagher and her sad “National Organization for Marriage,” and it looks like same-sex marriage will survive tomorrow’s vote.

In Washington State, a domestic partnership law (”everything-but-marriage”) is up for referendum. Unlike Prop 8 in California or Maine’s Issue 1, a vote for R-71 is a vote for the expansion of domestic partnership rights and benefits. The referendum should pass, according to the latest Washington Poll [PDF].

So what does the big political picture look like on Wednesday morning? A mixed bag, I’d say. Conservatives will note, loudly and regardless of the outcomes in NJ and NY-23, that the results represent a tarnishing of the Democratic brand. (Indeed, some are already saying just that!) Liberals will almost certainly be able to find hope in the results of the two gay rights ballot initiatives.

But what’s most important to remember is that this is an off-year, and we’re talking about high-profile elections in just two states and one Congressional district. These few races, despite what everyone will tell you, do not represent any significant measurement of the political pulse.